Global cervical cancer vaccine sales exceeded $3 billion in 2017

Cervical cancer is one of the common malignant tumors in gynecology. The incidence rate is second only to breast cancer, ranking second. There are 500,000 new cases every year in the world, and about 275,000 people die of cervical cancer every year. In the past 10 years, the incidence of cervical cancer has steadily increased and rejuvenated. Among every 1 million HPV infected people, 100,000 cervical cytology abnormalities occur, of which 8,000 develop high-grade lesions, and 1600 eventually develop into Cervical cancer. That is to say, the probability of developing HPV-infected patients with cervical cancer is 0.2%.

In recent years, scientists have made clear that almost all cervical cancers are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Among them, HPV types 16 and 18 are the most important categories of uterine tumors. More than two-thirds of cervical cancer cases can be attributed to Both types of HPV are present, while the other two variants (types 6 and 11) have a 50% chance of developing other reproductive system diseases.

In response to these types of viruses that are prone to cause disease, there are currently three cervical cancer vaccines worldwide, namely Merda's Gardasil (four-valent seedlings, four HPV viruses for 6, 11, 16, and 18) and Gardasil 9 (9-valent seedlings, Five kinds of HPV virus subtypes 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 were added on the basis of 4 valence, and Cervarix (2 valence seedlings, for 16 and 18 HPV viruses) of GlaxoSmithKline.

According to the “2017-2022 China Vaccine Industry In-Depth Survey and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report” released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the global cervical cancer vaccine sales in 2016 was US$2.84 billion, up 6.77% year-on-year. Sales data only declined sharply in 2009. With the increase of certification countries and the promotion of national legislation to encourage the use of vaccines, Merck and GSK reversed the decline in sales; the global compound annual growth rate of cervical cancer vaccine is expected to be 8 in 2017-2020. Around 6%, sales will be close to $4 billion by 2020.

Chart 1: Global cervical cancer vaccine market size and forecast for 2007-2020 (unit: billion US dollars, %)

2007-2020 global cervical cancer vaccine market size and forecast (unit: billion US dollars,%)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

Gardasil: First sales of cervical cancer vaccine

In 2006, Merck developed the world's first HPV tetravalent vaccine “Gardasil” (Gardasil), which was launched in 2014. Gardasil/Gardasil9 is now available in more than 160 countries and regions. It is the world's largest cervical cancer vaccine. It is also the second largest vaccine product in the world, second only to Pfizer's pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar. In 2016, global sales reached US$2.173 billion, accounting for 77% of the total cervical cancer vaccine.

Chart 2: Gardasil/Gardasil9 sales growth in 2009-2017 (unit: billion US dollars, %)

Gardasil/Gardasil9 sales growth in 2009-2017 (unit: billion US dollars, %)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

Zhifei Bio: the biggest winner of domestic cervical cancer vaccine

At the end of July, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced the official launch of the first CFDA-approved cervical cancer vaccine, "Cervarix", in addition to Merck's four-valent cervical cancer vaccine. Gardasil was approved by the CFDA in May 2017 and is expected to enter the Chinese market. It is expected to be officially launched around May 2018. This will become the second cervical cancer vaccine approved in China and also make it exclusive in China. Agent Zhifei Biological became the biggest beneficiary.

According to the estimates of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the applicable population of the Merck's four-price HPV vaccine is 20-45 year olds. According to the corresponding group of 269 million people and the penetration rate of 3%, there are about 8 million injections per year. The gross profit rate of the vaccine of the flying bio-agent is between 40% and 45%. We assume that the domestic price of the four-price HPV vaccine of Merck is 798 yuan/piece (one person is 2,394 yuan), and the Gardasil domestic agent will Brought a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan for Zhifei.

With the improvement of people's awareness of disease prevention, especially the rising social status of women, people's awareness and acceptance of HPV vaccine is getting higher and higher. It is expected that the number of vaccinations will increase every year after the market introduction period. If the penetration rate reaches 5%, 13.45 million people will be vaccinated every year, and the annual net profit will reach 4.8 billion yuan.

Figure 3: Estimation of the profitability of Zhida Bio Agent Gardasil

Zhifei biological agent Gardasil's profitability calculation

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

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