Analysis of the Foreign Trade Situation of Chinese Medicine in April 2011

Statistics show that under the influence of the general growth in the global pharmaceutical market, changes in the international pharmaceutical industry, and the rapid development of the domestic pharmaceutical market, China’s pharmaceutical exports continued to grow rapidly in April, with imports and exports reaching US$6.112 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.92. %, Of which, exports were US$3.828 billion, up 48.20% year-on-year, and imports were US$ 2.284 billion, up 50.15% year-on-year.

one. Substantial increase in the export volume of APIs, but export prices continue to decline

In April, China's raw material medicine exports amounted to 1.995 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 39.12% year-on-year. From the perspective of export volume, China's export of raw material drugs is still growing steadily. In April, the export volume increased significantly by 40.33%. Most products have different degrees of international market share. However, the actual export situation is not optimistic, and the average export price has not rebounded significantly. Among them, the bulk of raw material medicine is worrying, and the average export prices of the 25 major bulk bulk drugs have fallen more than 20% year-on-year.

(I) The industrial structure determines the degree of competition, and the market for vitamin products is significantly different

The short-term price of vitamin E stabilized, in the past six months the export price stabilized at between 16-17 US dollars per kilogram. In March and April, the export volume soared by 48.44% and 56.18%. In particular, the export of European and American markets maintained a substantial growth, according to GTA data. In the quarter, the proportion of VE products in Europe and the United States continues to expand, accounting for 60-70% of the market share. Due to the difficulty of vitamin E production, there are many synthetic reaction steps, involving the production of multiple key intermediates, large capital investment, and industry standards. Barriers to entry are relatively high, and relatively moderate competition is conducive to sound development of the industry. At present, there are four major manufacturers of vitamin E in the world, with the exception of domestic Zhejiang Pharmaceuticals and Zhejiang Xinhecheng, and overseas mainly Dutch DSM and German BASF.

Recently, due to the increase in international market demand, domestic raw material prices and other factors, the relatively stable production scale of VB1 and VB2 began to stabilize and continued to rebound. Among them, the VB1 price has increased from US$14.5/kg at the beginning of the year to US$15.43. / kg, VB2 price rose from 24.44 US dollars / kg at the beginning of the year to 29.04 US dollars / kg.

The VC export situation is worrying. The problem of overcapacity has intensified. Export prices have fallen by more than 30% from the same period of last year. Some newly added companies have noticeably lower prices for export. In the same period, export prices have dropped significantly below the average export price by more than 20% to compete for export market share. , to form a more tense competitive situation. At present, the global vitamin C manufacturers are mainly concentrated in China. There is only one DSM abroad. The international market has a high degree of dependence on our products, but the growth of production scale far exceeds international demand. In order to standardize the production of vitamin C industry, the "Vitamin C industry access conditions" led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to be introduced in the near future and is expected to play a positive role in stabilizing export prices.

(B) Periodical rebound of penicillin products, the prospects for cephalosporins

The export situation of penicillin products improved. In April, the average export price increased by 7.69% year-on-year, and the overall center of gravity shifted further downstream. The proportion of 6-APA further increased, and its cumulative exports from January to April increased from 31.48% of the original proportion. Up to 40.39%, the proportion of exports increased from 35.51% to 43.5%. The improvement of the penicillin industry chain has played a positive role in improving the overall export level.

The export situation of tetracycline products is still promising. In the past two years, more and more new uses of tetracycline have been discovered, the scope of application has been continuously expanding, the international market demand has also been growing, the recent market boom has rebounded significantly, and export prices have already formed. In the past two years, the continuous rise channel, April exports reached 1240 tons, an increase of 42.58%, an increase of 81.42%, the export price is a record high of 21.86 US dollars / kg, Asia, Europe and the United States market is further stable, Chinese products have been Dominated.

The export prospects of cephalosporin products are worrying. Due to the commencement and commencement of production of 7-ACA projects by major companies such as U.S. Pharmaceutical, Lukang, and Hua Yao, the domestic production capacity will increase by 7,600 tons during the year, which will double domestic production capacity. Although the actual production capacity is not yet All achieved, but export prices have been reflected, in April the export price has plummeted from US$101 per kg in February to the current US$72.34, which is basically close to the cost line. In addition, the export of ceftriaxine is also not optimistic. In April, the export price unexpectedly dropped to below US$100 per kilogram, which was the lowest point in the past two years. The main factors were the increase in production capacity of Suzhou Dongrui, Qiluan for pharmaceuticals, and stone drug companies. Expanding exports to break the dominance of the original export-oriented anti-export policy is expected to further worsen the product's competitive situation.

(C) Paracetamol export steadily

Due to the consumption of inventories in international markets, the recent export volume has rebounded significantly. The monthly export volume has remained at a relatively high level of 4,000-5,500 tons. The export price has remained at around 3.9 U.S. dollars per kilogram. Market demand in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the European Union stable. At present, domestic paracetamol manufacturers lack technology and quality advantages, and their product grades have not changed significantly. Under the situation where the market share of low-end products in the international market continues to expand, the European and American markets continue to maintain large growth, but it is difficult to enter the international high-end market. Similarly, there is a serious problem of excess production capacity in paracetamol. The increase in recent two years is greater than the growth in the international market. There is a phenomenon of price reduction competition among domestic production enterprises, and the cyclical nature of the industry is obvious.

(D) Heparin sodium prices return to stable levels

Heparin Sodium Phthalate raw materials Due to the increase in production capacity of second-tier export enterprises and the expansion of exports, Haipu Rui, the leading enterprise, has suffered a certain impact. The overall export price has rapidly declined from high levels since the fourth quarter of last year, from US$11,000 per kilogram to the current US$8,900, and the price tends to Stability, while the international market demand remained stable, the French, Austrian, and German markets maintained steady growth. At the same time, the domestic downstream product heparin drug market is expected to expand rapidly, which will keep the demand for heparin sodium as a raw material drug. This year, Haipurui and Qianhong Pharmaceutical will expand their production capacity through technological transformation. The Beijing Beifeng Fengyuan Group Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30 tons of heparin sodium. The project was started in mid-April and will become the second largest heparin sodium producer in China after its production. The competition for enterprises will increase the scarcity of raw material resources. Therefore, it is expected that the medium and long-term development of heparin sodium will maintain a relative balance between the limited domestic raw materials and the stable growth of the international and domestic supply and demand markets.

Comprehensive analysis, China's current export situation of raw material drugs is difficult to be optimistic, due to changes in the pharmaceutical industry structure, North America, the European Union, India gradually withdraw part of the raw material drug production, prompting the global demand for pharmaceutical raw materials to grow. However, while the demand in the international market has expanded, domestic companies have carried out larger-scale expansions, serious low-level repeated construction, and the behavior of domestic companies competing for export markets has become increasingly fierce. This has made raw material medicines in the passive position in the international market. At a low level, the market's growth has not brought substantial benefits due to the advantages of China's large-scale production, and the structural adjustment and integration of the industry is imminent.

Second, foreign-invested exports drove Western medicine exports to continue to rise.

In April, exports of western medicines continued to rise. Exports increased by 37.55% year-on-year. Exports of foreign-funded enterprises led domestic pharmaceutical companies, a substantial increase of 49.02%, and their share increased from 52.73% in the same period last year to 57.87%. In terms of the market, the EU and Australian markets have experienced substantial growth, with growth rates of 177% and 908.46%, respectively. The export structure, which was dominated by generic drugs such as antibiotics and vitamin-based dietary supplements, has changed, and the variety of exports has become more diverse. The increase in the proportion is closely related to the increase of Chinese investment by multinational pharmaceutical companies worldwide.

Third, medical device exports maintain a strong growth

(I) The export of medical equipment continued the growth momentum in the previous period. In April, the export increased by 56.23% year-on-year. From the recent market analysis, the export market for diagnosis and treatment equipment in China is still vast, and has continued to grow sharply in Europe, America and Japan. It has maintained an increase of more than 40% in these three markets for two consecutive months. At the same time, ASEAN, the Middle East, Russia, India, Markets such as Australia’s exports have increased significantly, and their share has increased significantly. The main reason is that the cost-effectiveness of products is higher, and the quality is improved quickly. Some high-end products of the company have changed the situation that was originally low-end and started to move toward the high-end market. The recognition of the international market has been continuously improved and the development trend is good.

(b) Exports of traditional medical device products continued to show significant growth.

In April, traditional medical device products continued to maintain rapid growth, and medical dressings, disposable consumables, health care and rehabilitation supplies and other commodities were affected by the factors of rising raw material prices, and the prices of export products all increased to varying degrees. Cotton wool, gauze, bandages, etc. Product prices continue to remain high.

The global economy continued to recover, health care and rehabilitation supplies were sought after, and exports of health care and rehabilitation products represented by massage appliances continued to grow. In April, the export of massage apparatus increased by 14.05% year-on-year, and the export price increased by 49.79% year-on-year, of which the proportion of high-priced products increased significantly. According to the exhibitors from the Canton Fair this spring, the number of buyers visited has continued to increase, the number of European and American buyers has increased significantly, and there has been a greater interest in medium-sized massage products, especially the functional and intelligent design of new products. After years of imitation, the company pays attention to independent research and development, and constantly launches new products independently researched and developed, and has applied for patent protection at the first time. This phenomenon shows that the massage equipment industry in our country is getting mature.

four. Domestic demand growth has boosted imports of Western medicine and medical equipment

In April, imports of pharmaceuticals continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate, with an import value of 2.284 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.15%. Among the three major varieties of imported drugs, the growth rate of APIs slowed down obviously, and the proportion continued to drop from 33.05% to 26.31%. Western medicine, The import of medical equipment continued to grow at an explosive rate, with growth rates of 71.99% and 58.02%, respectively. The proportion of imports also rose further. Import sources were concentrated in the United States, the European Union, and Japan, which together accounted for 75.25% of the import value, up 55.35% year-on-year. , 64.62%, 25.77%, in addition, the unexpected decline in imports from India, a year-on-year decrease of 0.62%.

With the continuous improvement of China's medical security system, the continued increase in residents' disposable income and the aging population will continue to drive the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical industry. In the future, China's drug terminal market will continue to flourish, further promoting the international import of high-end drugs. Statistics show that since 2009, China’s imports of pharmaceuticals have continued to increase substantially for three consecutive years, plus the processing trade of raw materials imported by foreign-funded enterprises, the actual import growth of China exceeds the increase in the domestic pharmaceutical market, and with the gradual introduction of the promotion policy of China, The import of pharmaceuticals will be actively promoted, and sustained and substantial growth will be possible. It is expected that the increase in imports this year will exceed the level in 2010.

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