China's grain and oil market report in August showed that this month, the purchase price of domestic soybeans continued to rise, the transaction turned strong, the domestic soybean crushing profits rose to a positive value, and the enthusiasm for the purchase and start-up of oil plants increased.

According to the Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market on September 3, in August, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong decreased month-on-month, and the cost of imported soybeans to Hong Kong increased compared to the previous period. Due to the high price of oil sorghum prices, the processing revenue of oil plants remained at a positive range, and the port distribution price Strong performance and reduced pressure on port inventory. This month, the purchase price of domestic soybeans continued to rise, and the transactions turned prosperous. The domestic soybean crushing profits rose to a positive value, and the enthusiasm for the purchase and start-up of oil plants increased.

I. Expected Production Increases to Strengthen the High Price of Soybeans During the Current Period The CBOT soybean futures price rose sharply to a wide-ranging oscillation after the high of the year. The price center of gravity shifted upwards, and the index rose by 0.25%. Mainly caused by the sharp rise of funds, stir-frying weather and wheat and other Linchi agricultural products, rather than fundamental improvement, therefore, when the US soybean yield is clear, CBOT soybean prices fell rapidly after hitting a new high of six months. Technically, the US soybean rebounded after rebounding to the key support level of 1,000 cents per bushel. It is expected that the box will oscillate in September and focus downward.

Soybean futures prices followed the CBOT soybean futures trend this month. The index rose 0.79%. Constrained by the huge inventory pressure on imports of soybeans to Hong Kong in the previous period, domestic soybean price fluctuations were smaller than the external disk. The decrease in the import volume in the latter part of the month and the arrival of the consumer season, the destocking process of domestic soybeans went smoothly, but with the strengthening of domestic soybean production expectations this year, it is expected that Soybean futures price will remain weak to follow the external disk trend.

2. Good growth of domestic soybeans is expected to increase year-on-year. Domestic soybean production areas are in good condition. Soybeans are growing well. Especially in Heilongjiang, the growth is clearly better than last year. Various agencies have optimistic about the domestic soybean yield and output this year. It is predicted that the output of domestic soybeans in the later period will increase year-on-year. This month, due to the rising cost of imported soybeans and the arrival of the consumer season, the prices of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil in the main producing areas have increased. Meanwhile, the new crop soybeans will go on high-yield production. The reluctant sales sentiment of dealers and farmers has weakened, and domestic soybean purchases and sales have been booming. The comprehensively calculated profit from the processing of the oil plant in the main producing areas turned from loss to profit, and the enthusiasm of procurement and start-up of oil plants increased.

This month's market news that there was a temporary storage soybean auction, as the rapid increase in the cost of imports led to domestic soybean and edible oil prices rose, the latter country is likely to open reserves of soybeans, edible oil reserves for public auction, or temporary reserve subsidies to the ground Storage form to increase market supply. However, there is still considerable room for soybean market prices to be sold at prices that are pleasing to the market. If soybeans are sold at a price of 3,800 yuan/tonne, the transaction may be relatively small. In the later period, in order to prevent importation inflation caused by the sharp increase in the price of imported soybeans and edible oil, the country is more likely to sell temporary soybeans at a price slightly lower than the cost or subsidies. With the increase in the prices of imported soybeans and edible oil, the possibility of sales of temporary storage soybeans is increasing.

Third, the arrival of soybean meal prices in the peak season has been affected by the arrival of the domestic consumer season and the dramatic increase in costs. The spot price of soybean meal soared at the beginning of this month, and then showed a trend of highs falling back. In the next one to two months, domestic soybean meal prices will rise weakly, but there will be limited downward support under cost support. First, the sharp rise in prices led to the demand side's caution. The dealers who took the goods at the beginning of the month had already formed a certain float loss, and the purchasing mentality was more conservative. The demand for intermediate storage tanks was reduced. Second, the sequential decrease in soybean meal exports from June to July also reflects the decrease in demand for high-priced soybean meal by foreign companies. Thirdly, the current processing plant's profitability has led to an increase in the operating rate. Under the background of cautious demand, pressure on the soybean meal in the oil plant has increased. The fourth is the double-section pre-production poultry slaughter. If it is unable to timely fill the bar, it will affect the demand for soybean meal. It is expected that soybean meal prices in the short term will maintain a high level of shock and there will be downward space in the medium term.

Fourth, processing profits remain positive at high levels China's strong demand This month, imports of soybeans to Hong Kong continued to decline in the chain, but still year-on-year growth. During the most part of the month, the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal were at this year's high, and the cost of imported soybeans to Hong Kong and distribution prices also rose to the highest level in the year. Based on this, the processing revenue of integrated oil plants is ideally 200-400 yuan/ton. High value interval.